How we work
Insights is where we explain the MarchMetrix models, show how they are tested, and keep score in public.
Who writes it
MarchMetrix Research: the people who build and run the ratings, the simulations, and the committee model. Every piece is written and reviewed by a person before it is published. Research assistants, human or otherwise, are input, not authors, and every number is checked against the dataset it comes from.
What we publish about the models
We explain what a model measures, what kinds of information go into it, how it was tested on seasons it never saw, how accurate it has been, and where it fails. Backtest results and live grades are published in full, including the misses.
We do not publish the recipe: equations, parameters, feature lists, thresholds, or the mechanics of the fit. That line is the same on every page of the site, and a check in our build stops a piece that crosses it.
How pieces are dated
Each article shows a published date and, when the prose has changed, an analysis-updated date. Live tables inside an article read the current nightly data and carry their own "as of" stamp, so pinned analysis and live numbers are never confused. Every article has a version number that goes up with each editorial change, and a last-reviewed date.
Corrections
If a number is wrong, tell us. Use the feedback button on any page or email updates@marchmetrix.com. Corrections are made in place, the version number goes up, and the review date changes. We do not delete misses. The ledger exists to keep them.
Sources
Every article lists the MarchMetrix datasets it uses with their as-of dates. Game results and schedules come from public league data. Model output is a probability, never a promise, and none of it is betting advice.